Paper: Real-Time Predictive Modeling For The Gas Pipeline Dispatcher

The concept of predictive modeling for "What if?" and contingency analysis is well established for electric power dispatching. We are currently completing the first such system for gas pipeline network dispatching. The model accounts for fully transient flow of gas through pipelines and equipment. Based on flow forecasts, 16 hour predictions of pressure, horsepower, and fuel are made. The system continually tracks the SCADA data base so that the linepack distribution is current. In addition to answering "What if?" questions, the system supports risk analysis, leak detection, and strategy evaluation. The model can be used for pack and draft analysis, compressor fuel optimization, and operator training.